The only poll that counts is the election

Posted on July 31, 2024 by Marty Ryan

Previously published in the Des Moines Register, July 30, 2024, under the headline: 

Trump-Harris polls? Wake me up after people actually vote.

Results of political polls are jumping up and down like lines on a seismograph Velcroed to the side of an active volcano since President Joe Biden withdrew his campaign for reelection.

I pay little attention. It’s been a long, long time since I depended upon any published poll for the presidency to provide me with an accurate indication about the leanings of American voters.

There is a significant difference between a poll and a survey, although the word “poll” is used interchangeably. While a poll often consists of one question with or without a limited number of questions, a survey mixes several open-ended questions with one-word answers. Even so, “the real world of survey research is not perfect,” as the Pew Research Center wrote in 2020. Do not confuse national polling with that of Iowa’s Selzer & Co. Ann Selzer’s poll are more accurate because the methodology consists of a well-defined area and issues that do not compete with an alternative outcome.

A few weeks ago, a friend sent me the following information from Political Wire, “one of the earliest and most influential political” websites, founded by Taegan Goddard.

The latest Emerson College survey finds Donald Trump leading Joe Biden in a national matchup, 46% to 43%, with 11% are undecided. When undecided voters were asked which candidate they leaned toward, 50% supported Trump and 50% supported Biden.

The key phrase in this paragraph is “national matchup.” Unfortunately, the survey would be more accurate if the United States held an election in which the majority of votes decided the winner of the election. However, the Electoral College gets in the way. Not one poll I have checked considers the Electoral College, and I have checked on many.

Emerson College’s “data sets were weighted by gender, education, race, age, party affiliation, and region.” Does the data set “region” take into consideration that Rhode Island is predominately Democratic territory compared with Idaho on the other end of the political spectrum? Both states will have four electoral votes this coming election. However, an overall picture of red- and blue-leaning states shows an imbalance of where electoral votes come from. Small states such as Iowa, the Dakotas, Nebraska, Wyoming, and others tip the Electoral College in favor of Republicans. But the heavily populated states of California, New York, and many other coastal parts of the country have an unbalanced number of electoral votes that dwarf those of the flyover states. From Pew: “If pollsters only focused on the Electoral College, the vast majority of Americans (about 80%) who live in uncompetitive states would essentially be ignored, with their needs and views deemed too unimportant to warrant polling.” Then what’s the point of a poll claiming to determine the frontrunner? A national poll may be more accurate discovering the nation’s favorite peanut butter.

Earlier this month, prior to Biden’s withdrawal from the race, a USA TODAY headline read: “Harris leads Biden, Trump in new poll.” Headlines can be deceiving in an election year. Upon reading the story associated with the headline, you will discover that the poll, taken by an obscure firm, considers several “hypothetical matchups.” Do people lie when responding to polls? Of course.

Pew again: “The 2000 and 2016 presidential elections demonstrated a difficult truth: National polls can be accurate in identifying Americans’ preferred candidate and yet fail to identify the winner.” This happens when the national popular vote winner (e.g., Al Gore, Hillary Clinton) differs from the Electoral College winner (e.g., George W. Bush, Donald Trump).

When “national” polls in the past have shown that Trump was leading or tied with the Democratic candidate, is it any wonder why Trump and his followers believed the election was stolen? It’s similar to demanding your winnings in a horse race in which your horse came in seventh, but the odds predicted the horse to win.

Leave the polling to the unpublished polls of the campaigns and resolve to accept the results of the election, no matter what your opinion tells you based on “national matchups.”

Marty Ryan of Des Moines is retired after lobbying the Iowa Legislature for 27 years.

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Uncivil War

Posted on July 4, 2024 by Marty Ryan

Throughout the day, we went about our duties, fulfilling our responsibilities as required, knowing that an attack could come at any time. It was possible for us to move out, but collectively, we planned to stay and maintain our position. There was plenty of time to relocate in the north, where allies would have welcomed our presence. We had ample warning that this was coming. However, we were positive in our thinking; we could not succumb to the threat that was about to overtake us.

It began shortly before dusk. We could hear the artillery coming from the north and it was getting louder as it got nearer. Soon, we saw the flashes of light; not quite overhead, but close enough to make us hunker down for the long fight that could last long into the night, and possibly into the first light of daybreak.

They must have shifted their front because the weaponry started going off to the west of us. Before long, they had us totally surrounded. We knew it was going to be another sleepless night as the rat-tat-tat of obvious machine gun fire came up from our rear.

We thought of calling reinforcements, but we were told by the authorities that it would be at least an hour before anyone would show up. We had to wait it out and hope they would run out of ammunition.

It is anticipated that another offensive assault will occur tomorrow since today is only the third of July. Tomorrow, July 4th, we believe the air will be unbearable and the ground gained by the opposition will be littered by daybreak on the Fifth.

This annual war was declared upon the peaceful residents of Iowa by the current governor in April of 2022.

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Whose Ten Commandments?

Posted on June 28, 2024 by Marty Ryan

Earlier this week, Governor Jeff Landry of Louisiana signed legislation requiring the Ten Commandments be posted in every public-school classroom, from kindergarten through college, throughout Louisiana. Further, he said “I can’t wait to be sued.”

In my bedroom is a 22 x 28-inch laminated poster of the Ten Commandments. It’s there because my stepson gave it to me after I complained about people who don’t know that there is more than one version of the Ten Commandments. The version in my bedroom is the Catholic version. The Catholic version is listed first; the protestant version next.

  1. I am the Lord, your God.  You shall not have other gods besides me.
  2. You shall not take the name of the Lord, your God, in vain.
  3. Remember to keep holy the Lord’s day.
  4. Honor your father and your mother.
  5. You shall not kill.
  6. You shall not commit adultery.
  7. You shall not steal.
  8. You shall not bear false witness against your neighbor.
  9. You shall not covet your neighbor’s wife.
  10. You shall not covet your neighbor’s goods.

 

  1. I AM the Lord thy God. Thou shalt not have no other gods before me.
  2. Thou shalt not make to thyself any graven images.
  3. Thou shalt not take the Name of the Lord thy God in vain.
  4. Remember the Sabbath day, to keep it holy.
  5. Honor thy father and thy mother, that thy days may be long upon the land which the Lord thy God giveth thee.
  6. Thou shalt not kill.
  7. Thou shalt not commit adultery.
  8. Thou shalt not steal.
  9. Thou shalt not commit false witness against thy neighbor.
  10. Thou shalt not covet thy neighbor’s house. Thou shalt not covet thy neighbor’s wife, nor his manservant, nor his maidservant, nor his cattle, nor anything else that is thy neighbor’s.

Notice that the numbering of each is different from the other. You should be able to see that a child in elementary school may have a problem going from public school to CDC[1] (Catechism) classes at the Catholic Church. The child will see the second set of Commandments on a daily basis, which could conceivably be the influence of a different Christian upbringing, favoring one particular religion over another in defiance of the First Amendment of the U.S. Constitution. Numbering is important when the child receives the Sacrament of Reconciliation (Confession) and refers to violating a specific-numbered Commandment. “Father, I sinned against the Seventh Commandment.” The priest believing the child had sexual relations when in actuality, the kid shoplifted an apple.

As I remember from my Catholic upbringing, the first three are about our relationship with God, while the final seven are about our relationships with others. Sort of like the new Commandant Jesus gave followers: “You shall love the Lord, your God, with all your heart, with all your soul, and with all your mind. This is the greatest and the first commandment. The second is like it:  You shall love your neighbor as yourself.” Matthew 22:37-38. It’s that simple.

“According to the Catholic Encyclopedia Web site, the system for numbering the commandments in Bible translations used by Catholics was determined by St. Augustine,” who lived in the Fifth Century.

The protestant and Evangelical sects include an unnecessary commandment – “Thou shalt not make to thyself any graven images.” It’s blatantly redundant and should be a part of the First Commandment that requires no other gods. But with all the statues in a Catholic church you can see why the leadership of the Roman Catholic Church may have forsaken that particular phrase from the original ten.

There is so much more to despise with the protestant commandments. The neighbor’s house, wife, cattle and slaves are on equal par with each other in ‘objects’ not to be coveted. This commandment belittles women and slaves. Archaic practices have no place in the world today.

To criticize both versions, the prohibition against killing is also outdated. As a society, we kill cattle, hogs, chickens, and other animals; some domesticated and some wild such as deer, turkeys, mourning doves, and fish. The Jewish version of commandments has quoted exactly from the Old Testament, The Torah, or the Tanakh – “You shall not murder.”

In the Jewish faith, there are 613 commandments, 248 are dos and the don’ts add up to 365. Let’s post those along with the symbolic Top Ten.

In a pair of U.S. Supreme Court decisions from 2005[2] which challenged the constitutionality of posting the Ten Commandments, Phil Miller-Evans, Pastor at American Baptist Church of the Beatitudes in St. Petersburg, Florida, said the “American Baptists were among the 32 Baptist denominations that filed a friend of the court brief stating that displays actually diminish the Decalogue’s sacred value.”

So, what about other religions. Muslims have no Top Ten, but basic beliefs and principles are a basic theme throughout the Koran. Buddhists have the Five Precepts. Hinduism provides general guidelines for living.

Supporters of the Louisiana law believe the Ten Commandments are a historical document. If that’s the case, classrooms should be wallpapered with all the historical information from all religions and sects across our melting pot.

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[1] The Confraternity of Christian Doctrine is now commonly referred to by its abbreviation, CCD, or simply as “Catechism”, and provides religious education to Catholic children attending secular schools.

[2] Van Orden v. Perry, 545 U. S. 677 (2005), and McCreary County v. ACLU of Kentucky, 545 U. S. 844 (2005),

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Hold the mayo

Posted on June 22, 2024 by Marty Ryan

Most people coming to Des Moines want to eat at some exotic, fine, well-known eatery in central Iowa. However, take one of my recommendations for hometown food. Not only has the food been delicious, but several of the following locations have served some very famous people in the past.

Years ago, a friend joined me to dine at George the Chili King, a greasy spoon drive-in close to the corner of Hickman Road and Merle Hay Road. The namesake chili is a menu item I tried once. It may have been simmering slowly and easy for the flavors to meld, but you shouldn’t have to peel off the crusty layer in order to get to the smudge that could have been burnt at the bottom of the pot. I was told that I was there on the wrong day. However, I stopped several times, and each must have been the wrong day. The décor was from the 1950s and so was the dust. But if you could get past the gloveless counter employees wiping their hands on their shirts, the tenderloin and fries were great! The aura of overused fryer oil permeated the air and stuck with you for the rest of the day, sort of like the meal.

The owners died and the dive closed. Recently, the sign was sold and removed from the partially-damaged roof. It looks like we’re not going to enjoy George’s menu items any longer.

George was an economic and environmental leader as he transformed the deep fat fryer’s grease into fuel for his modified pickup engine. I believe in supporting a business that is into recycling.

This business’ famous visitor was Guy Fieri of Diners, Drive-ins and Dives in 2014.

At one time, a burger at Kelly’s Little Nipper on East Grand Avenue in Des Moines was one of the best in Iowa. This establishment, founded in 1940, was once filled at noon with legislators and lobbyists trying to find a booth or table amongst the regulars. Most patrons enter through the back door since the best parking is across the street in a bumpy dirt lot. It’s not fast food by any measure, but the burgers and grinders are the best in Des Moines. The food is moderately priced and plentiful.

One afternoon, the place was so full, my guest and I had to sit at a small table by the door because even the bar was packed. There is a large round table by the front door. That day, eight of the nine Iowa Supreme Court justices were dining around the large oak table. You have to know the place is on the high end of Des Moines eateries when the Iowa Chief Justice and seven of his associates were having a fulfilling meal. If you attend the Iowa State Fair, the saloon is not too far out of your way; or right on the way if you happen to drive down East Grand Avenue. You will spot it readily as the only building on the block that appears to be leaning.

Zombie Burger in the East Village is a favorite of many visitors to Des Moines. My favorite sandwich, the Undead Elvis is a burger with peanut butter, fried bananas, bacon, American cheese, a fried egg, and mayo. I’ll have to request holding the mayo from now on. I think it gives me heartburn. The famous people at this establishment will often include a few legislators and lobbyists – sipping martinis during a noon break in the daily action at the Capitol up the street.

Another place on my list is not in Des Moines, but halfway between Des Moines and Iowa City/Cedar Rapids. Iowa’s Best Burger in Iowa Café is a small establishment near the Kellogg exit on I-80. Be sure to order fries with your burger.

My final recommendation is the Capitol cafeteria at the Statehouse. Governor Branstad used to frequent the cafeteria during the noon hour and speak with diners on occasion. He never chose to sit with me. When the late Mark Cady was the Chief Justice, he would bring an associate along with him and sit in the cafeteria to hear what any Iowan had to say about the courts. They didn’t get much company, but I sat with them when no one else would. One so-called famous person you won’t see in the Iowa Capitol cafeteria is Governor Kim Reynolds. How could her conscience allow her to be seen eating in public after turning down $29 million of federal funding that would have provided a low-income family $40 per month “to help with food costs” during the 3-month break in the school year.

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This blog is adapted from an article with the same title in the Summer 2024 issue of The Prairie Progressive. [$15.00 for a 1-year subscription]

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Family Food Dysfunction

Posted on June 16, 2024 by Marty Ryan

The third of June is a big date in the Ryan family. You probably associate the date with “another sleepy, dusty Delta day.” As you know, that’s the day that “Billy Joe MacAllister jumped off the Tallahatchie Bridge.”

What you don’t know is that June 3rd was our parents’ wedding anniversary. Francis [Charlie] Martin Ryan wed Rhea [Lavon] Madonna Fritz in Manilla, Iowa, in 1941.

On June 3, 1952, Kevin Edward Ryan, second son of Charlie and Rhea, was born. Five years later, Kevin’s younger brother, Joseph Charles Ryan, was born in Denison on June 3rd. I can still remember Kevin sitting on the bed yelling at mom that he wasn’t going to share his birthday with anyone.

We were never able to celebrate an anniversary and two birthdays on the same day. Our dad passed away from renal failure a little over two months after Joe was born. However, we did celebrate two birthdays on June 3rd for many years.

One of the pleasures of celebrating your birthday in our home was selecting the dinner menu and the type of cake for the evening. Kevin and Joe had the easiest choices. Kevin always wanted hot dogs, and Joe wanted hamburgers. We had both on the same day. I wouldn’t want to guess the cake choices, and I don’t think it was two separate cakes.

I always chose Swiss steak with mashed potatoes and corn. But before Joe died, he wanted to argue with me and say that Swiss steak was John’s favorite meal. I don’t know why Joe would think he knew more than me about my favorite dinner. But I let it ride. John’s favorite meal could have been anything. John had a big appetite and ate anything and everything in front of him.

For a few years, my chosen cake was not necessarily my favorite, but mom would make a spice cake for me. You see, I was okay with it, but none of my siblings liked it so I got it all to myself. Mom may have caught on and I switched my cake to a confetti angel food.

Pat’s favorite was chicken and noodles. Mom made homemade noodles (recipe follows), and cooked them with chicken and chicken broth from a capon or rooster that she got from a farmer. Each of us kids loved mom’s chicken and noodles the best, but when we would tell her it was “my” favorite dish, she would correct us and tell us “no,” that’s Pat’s favorite. No one missed dinner when we arrived home from school to see towels draped over kitchen chairs with noodles drying.

After I grew up, served time in the Army, and moved out of my childhood home, mom would bring me buttermilk brownies on my birthday. “I made your favorite,” she would say with a smile. I never knew what the hell she was talking about. I didn’t like buttermilk brownies growing up. I always thought the frosting was like a melted Hersey’s bar. But I tried not to disappoint her and accepted buttermilk brownies on my birthday every year.

Several years ago, Pat hosted a dinner at her house and at least two, if not all three of my sisters were there. We began talking about our favorite dinners, cakes, etc. Carol mentioned that she loved mom’s buttermilk brownies but never had any since she was married. That solved a major family mystery as far as I was concerned.

Looking into the months ahead, we are going to include some recipes and a YouTube video of us preparing and processing the recipes. We will include Marty’s Iowa State Fair Blue-Ribbon caramels, homemade pies using several different crust variations, and many selections we have adapted from other recipes, such as Chocolate Amaretto Mousse. Stay tuned.

Homemade Noodles

by – Rhea Ryan

3 egg yolks
1 whole egg
Beat in 3 tablespoons cold water
1 teaspoon salt

Stir and work in with hands. 2 cups sifted flour.[1]

Divide dough into 3 parts.

Roll out each piece as thin as possible, (paper thin)

on lightly floured cloth covered board.

Place between 2 towels until dough is partially dry,

like chamois skin. With sharp knife cut into strips of

desired widths one-eighth for fine and up to ½ inch for broad.

Shake out strips and allow to dry.

Makes 6 cups.

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[1] 2 cups was a significant change from Aunt Francy’s original recipe that called for a ‘glob’ of flour.

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A.I. Influence in Elections

Posted on June 2, 2024 by Marty Ryan

Intelligence and politics are two words that often don’t go together. But when you add the adjective “artificial” to further describe intelligence there should be no connection between that and politics. There is no room for artificial intelligence in American elections. But it’s beginning to happen.

In early March 2024, the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) published an account of how Trump supporters have used AI in ads depicting Trump surrounded by black voters. A picture is worth a thousand words, and much of the AI produced by Trump supporters are photos of Trump with black voters – none of which are real. One such photo has a man with three arms. Another has people with fingers missing. People do miss fingers in accidents and such, but no one has three arms.

Mark Kaye, a Florida-based conservative radio host with more than a million followers, doesn’t deny that he and his team created some of those ads. As a matter-of-fact, he “told the BBC that it was the individual’s problem if their vote was influenced by AI images.”

Recently, the New York Times reported that Russia is creating “look-alike websites that are fake versions of real news outlets,” not only in the U.S., but in Japan, Israel, and other countries, creating artificial news. American and European intelligence agencies have warned that misinformation on the Russian efforts are “harder to trace and combat than Russia’s previous misinformation campaign.” For example, Russia, China and Iran are being accused by authorities in London that disinformation about Catherine, Princess of Wales, before she came out with news of her cancer, was widely spread throughout England in an “effort to destabilize the country.

Spreading misinformation through phony websites using artificial information is not a new concept, but it is an increasing concern throughout the world. A testing ground for A.I. in election propaganda could have been Argentina, where Russian influence was prominent in campaign material between presidential candidates Sergio Massa and Javier Milei, the eventual winner who was backed by A.I.-generated information.

Closer to home, “Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida shared a video showing the A.I.-generated images of Donald J. Trump hugging Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, who has become and enemy on the American right for his role leading the nation’s pandemic response.”[1]

The Iowa House of Representatives passed House File 2549 a bill that prohibits the use of artificial intelligence in campaign material unless it contains a disclosure that informs the recipient that the material is produced using artificial intelligence. The measure passed by a vote of 93-1. But like any proposed law attempting to regulate political speech, it runs into a wall of constitutional obstacles. It could be those constitutional roadblocks kept it from emerging in the Senate State Government Committee, but I doubt it.

Another problem with the legislation is the provision creating a simple misdemeanor for certain violations. Not exactly a potent deterrent. Further, it seems as though organizations, corporations, and Political Action Committees are rarely charged with misdemeanors – felonies for that matter. You have to remember that “corporations are “persons” under the law. But how does the government enforce a misdemeanor with “confinement for no more than ninety days and a fine of not more than one thousand dollars” against a person who is not an individual?

The use of A.I. is coming to an election near you. You may not readily recognize it. If something looks phishy, it probably is. Look into various sources for similar information in order to form an opinion or decision based upon corroborated fact (minimum two sources).

Do not expect the government – any government – to be a service in guiding your information sources. That is not the responsibility of any government; federal, state, or local. Unfortunately, I have to agree with Mark Kaye above: it is “the individual’s problem if their vote was influenced by AI images.”

But, by all means, exercise your right to vote!

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[1] https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/15/world/americas/argentina-election-ai-milei-massa.html

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