A version of this blog was previously published in the November 2024 issue of the Prairie Progressive
Campaign strategist Jim Carville coined the phrase “[It’s] the economy, stupid” back in 1992 when he worked on Bill Clinton’s presidential campaign. “His phrase was directed at the campaign’s workers and intended as one of three messages for them to focus on.”
Evidently, the intent, if not the quote, has come back to the 2024 campaign. Congressperson Miller-Meeks has appeared in an ad insisting that “we gotta bring these prices down.” Good luck!
Don’t confuse inflation with the economy. Inflation is a part of the economy. The economy is the management of a government’s resources, such as money, prices of merchandise, services, and transportation. Republicans are attempting to blame “the economy” on Democrats.
Economic experts have placed the origin of the country’s current crisis with inflation at the beginning of 2020, when COVID-19 was beginning to affect markets, supplies, labor, services, and other aspects of the economy while President Trump was in office. At least one Facebook meme shows that the price of a 128 fl. oz. bottle of orange juice in January of 2020 was $2.99. In January of 2024, the price has increased to $4.29 for the same bottle.
The Biden Administration had very little to do with the surge in the price of orange juice, coffee, chocolate, gas or many other consumer goods. Orange juice is a commodity that, in its frozen concentrate state, is “traded at the Intercontinental Commodity Exchange (ICE) Futures,” and “ICE is the exclusive global market for RCOJ (frozen concentrate orange juice) futures and options.” Like the stock market, orange juice is not controlled by government involvement.
“Florida’s orange production has dropped by an estimated 92% in 20 years, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, attributing the loss to natural disasters, such as freezing and hurricanes, and disease such as citrus greening.” The price of orange juice will likely rise more in the near future since Hurricane Milton crossed the bulk of Florida’s orange tree orchards prior to harvest and created premature dropping of fruit on the ground.
It’s not just orange juice over which the President or Congress has no control. The stock market is closing at record highs, and gasoline prices are under $3 per gallon across much of the nation. If you believe a president, Congress, or any governmental agency can control the price of gasoline, you probably believe Congressperson Marjorie Taylor Greene when she claims the government controls the weather.
As the cost of groceries, insurance, and energy continue to rise, think about the last time the cost of those items fell. If your grocery bill decreased, you most likely have fewer mouths to feed, or you altered your diet. If your insurance rates decreased, you changed your policy for one reason or another. And if your energy costs dropped, it’s almost certain that you moved, installed new windows, or decided to conserve. The cost of all three of those necessities can be manipulated by the weather. Drought, hurricanes, tornadoes, excessive rainfall, freezing weather here and anywhere in the world and disease play a major role in what we pay for essentials.
So why did Carvelle instruct campaign staff to focus on “the economy, stupid?” For the same reason Republicans are using the mantra today; because of the hit you take in the pocketbook. It affects everyone. Most of all, it works in an election year.
Don’t be fooled by talk of higher prices. Republicans are not going to bring down the price of orange juice. Prices are controlled by an economic model of price determination in a market called supply and demand. It’s economics, stupid!
Good one!