What are the odds?

Mise en place [MEEZ ahn plahs] is the process of measuring and acquiring all the ingredients before the start of preparing a recipe. I practice the method religiously. However, when I decided to make some ham and scalloped potatoes last Sunday, I began putting the recipe together before ensuring that I had all the ingredients. I had milk, but not enough.

It had been cloudy all day, but my source of weather information suggested that there was a 29% chance of rain. That percentage wasn’t high enough for me to worry about having raindrops falling on my head. So, I decided to walk to the grocery store three blocks away. But I didn’t take the straightest line. Instead, I used the recreational trail near our house that will get you to the store by strolling along the river, but it’s a mile walk.

About two-hundred yards from the store’s entrance, it began to rain. The rain was light, so I didn’t mind getting a little mist on me. While in the store, accumulating necessary ingredients and a few impulsive purchases, I looked out to see that the rain was coming down harder. I made my purchases and stood by the door waiting for the rain to let up. After all, the chance of rain was only 29%. It couldn’t last long. But it did.

A few feet from the store was a long-supported overhang in front of a strip of several stores. I made it over there without getting too wet and walked to the end of the strip, but then what? There was only two things to do: stand like a fool until the rain stopped, or get wet. I got wet on the walk home.

The walk home was a short route. Even so, I began to think about that 29%. Isn’t the odds of it raining 50-50? It’s either going to rain, or it isn’t. In my opinion, the possibility of precipitation is always 50%.

More often than I appreciate it, people ask me: “What are the odds of that happening?” Fifty-fifty, I say. It would either happen or it won’t happen.

By the way, the scalloped potatoes and ham were just what I needed on a rainy day!

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