The rest of the story

Almost any curmudgeon from the previous century has heard Paul Harvey say, “And now you know — the rest of the story.” Let’s hear the rest of the story.

State Republican representatives are flaunting an initiative this year with a serious “tough on crime” agenda. Three Republican legislators have introduced three bills that 1) provide a mandatory minimum 20-year prison sentence without parole for a person convicted of multiple specific crimes (HSB 666); 2) “a bill (HSB 641) that would make it harder to be released on bail,” and 3) a bill requiring “the state court administrator to annually collect and publish information about how individual judges handle criminal cases.” (HSB 631)

According to Rep. Steven Holt (R-Denison), the need for HSB 666 is based upon “a bill that is now sweeping the nation and began in North Carolina, called “Iryna’s Bill.”” Rep. Holt stated that he is sick and tired of dangerous criminals being convicted of violent crimes and being released back into society after serving short sentences in prison.

The rest of the story begins with Iryna Zarutska, who was stabbed to death by DeCarlos Brown, Jr., while riding a late-night Blue Line light rail train in Charlotte, NC. Brown was sitting in the seat behind her as she held her phone in her hand. He stabbed her three times and she died within a minute. Would a law like the one Holt introduced prevent this from happening? Probably not.

Brown had a history of mental illness longer than his criminal record. He had been “struggling in recent years” with a diagnosis of schizophrenia and suffered hallucinations and paranoia.” He claimed the government had planted a chip in him, and he also believed Iryna was reading his mind.

Records indicate that Brown has been arrested in at least fourteen cases in less than a decade. Mecklenburg County (Charlotte), North Carolina where this incident occurred, uses pretrial risk assessments prior to sentencing in order to “help determine the likelihood of a defendant failing to appear in court or reoffending while on release.” Iowa enacted risk assessments as a “tool” several years ago. It goes to show that analysis used to predict the future are inaccurate. What is needed is a thorough follow-up after incarceration to make sure former inmates are continuing with the medication they were taking while imprisoned. Many times, a former inmate will revert back to self-medicating for various reasons: booze is cheaper than medication; booze and drugs are more readily available; and drugs and liquor are more familiar to the addict – a user understands the side effects.

Iowa has a law that has been gutted over the past many sessions: Minority Impact Statements. A minority impact statement is a significant portion of a fiscal note prepared by the Fiscal Division of the nonpartisan Iowa Legislative Services Agency . In cooperation with the Division of Criminal and Juvenile Justice Planning of the Department of Human Rights , the Fiscal Division analyzes legislation to determine if the legislation will have any impact on minorities (negative or positive).

Already, Iowa uses mandatory minimum sentencing for forcible felonies and requires risk assessments in pre-sentencing investigations. Mandatory minimum legislation was developed in the 1990s, and every bill establishing a mandatory minimum had a racial impact statement attached. The minority impact statement helped reduce the percentage of black Iowans in Iowa’s prisons. If this bill (HSB 666) is enacted, the population of black men in prison will be increased, once again.

In 2014, the Sentencing Project cited an Associated Press finding that minority impact statements in Iowa “appear to be having a modest effect.” A review of 61 impact statements issued since 2009 suggests that the policy has been “helping to defeat some legislation that could have exacerbated disparities and providing a smoother path to passage for measures deemed neutral or beneficial to minorities.” https://apnews.com/d320d9fdb9794d71b8b6436b808e0b16

In a United States Supreme Court case from 2017, Buck v. Davis, 580 U.S. 100 (2017), Chief Justice Roberts wrote: “when a jury hears expert testimony that expressly makes a defendant’s race directly pertinent on the question of life or death, the impact of that evidence cannot be measured simply by how much air time it received at trial or how many pages it occupies in the record. Some toxins can be deadly in small doses.” This analogy applies to legislation as well as the courts. Without knowing the consequences of some crimes resulting in incarcerating black men more than other offenders, the small doses become the big overdose.

One legislator said that Fiscal Notes have the ability to be used to shame legislators into opposing otherwise good legislation. Yes, we agree. And it often depends upon what “otherwise good” means. “Otherwise good” is in the hands of the beholder.

Enhancing penalties is one of the biggest red herrings in the lawmaking business. It looks like the legislature is doing “something” to prevent crime from occurring, but it does very little to prevent crime. It places a defendant in prison or jail for a longer period of time. That’s all it can do.

Even an offender with a mental health problem, especially schizophrenia, will be released sometime after twenty years. Maintaining sanity in a correctional setting does not go well after an inmate with mental health issues is released without parole.

Consider these facts:

“Iowa is hard to beat if you’re looking for a state with a low crime rate and a high quality of life. When it comes to property crime, which includes burglary and vandalism, the Hawkeye State is among the best 10 states in the nation and its incidence of violent crime is also comparably low.”[1]
“Des Moines Police say preliminary data from 2025 shows things are trending in a positive direction when it comes to major crimes.”[2]
“Iowa had the 4th-lowest violent crime rate in the region and the 19th-lowest violent crime rate in the country.”[3]
“In 2023, the property crime rate in Iowa (1,441 per 100,000 residents) was 25 percent lower than the national average (1,954 per 100,000). Between 2013 and 2023, property crime decreased by 34 percent in Iowa.”[4]
“The rates of burglary, larceny, and motor vehicle theft were lower in Iowa than the national average. Burglary decreased by 58 percent, the largest change of any property crime. The next largest change was larceny, which decreased by 32 percent.”[5]
“Black people were victims of violent crime 4.5 times more often than their share of the Iowa population.”[6]
“Black people were arrested for violent crime 6.6 times more often than their share of the Iowa population.”[7]
“Between 2012 and 2022 in Iowa, the prison population serving sentences for violent offenses decreased by 13 percent, while the prison population serving sentences for nonviolent offenses increased by 3 percent.”[8]
“Based on a 2019 calculation of operational capacity, a statistic that determines how many prisoners an institution can safely hold, the most overcrowded prisons were concentrated in the Midwest, with Iowa (119 percent), Nebraska (115.4 percent), and Idaho (110.1 percent) the most overcrowded.”[9]On January 31, 2026, the Iowa Correctional system was overcrowded by 23.52%.[10] “Prison overcrowding leads to severe consequences, including inadequate healthcare, increased violence, and heightened mental health issues among inmates. It also hampers rehabilitation efforts and can result in life-threatening conditions due to poor living environments.”
In 2011, the Supreme Court case Brown v. Plata[11] held that a court-mandated population limit was necessary to remedy the violation of prisoners’ constitutional rights and was authorized by the PLRA.[12] “The Federal Bureau of Prisons (BOP) has set 130% as a long-term goal for population levels in the federal prison system.” Brown, et al. v. Plata, et al., 563 U.S. 493, 540 (2011).
“One in five adults or roughly 600,000 Iowans live with some form of mental illness. About 37,000 grapples with serious mental illness daily.”[13]
“Arkansas, Mississippi, and Alabama had the least access to care and highest rates of imprisonment.”[14] “Iowa was ranked 51st in the nation for the number of state psychiatric beds, according to the latest report by the Treatment Advocacy Center.”[15]
“Iowa’s urban-rural provider disparity underscores the ongoing challenges rural communities face in accessing mental health care. Despite the efforts to improve, the state still lacks an adequate level of mental healthcare to rural communities, directly impacting the lives of many Iowans. Individuals in these rural communities are more likely to experience untreated mental health conditions, which can contribute to higher rates of depression, anxiety, and more. Addressing this gap is essential for breaking cycles of mental health illness and improving the well-being of rural communities.”[16]
Violent crime rates
(per 100,000 residents)

· Crime Type	· Iowa	· National
Murder	· 2.5	· 5.7
Aggravated assault	· 213.9	· 263.7
Robbery	· 22.3	· 65.4
Rape	· 41.3	· 38.0

Violent crime has been steadily declining overall, down 2.3 percent in the state year over year. Theft, burglary and robbery are all notably lower in Iowa than in the U.S. too. Property crime has increased 8 percent year over year but, overall, it’s 25 percent lower than the national average.

The murder rate is projected to hit its lowest point in a century

A new analysis of 2025 crime data from dozens of U.S. cities found across-the-board decreases in violent crime last year compared with 2019, including 13 percent fewer shootings, 29 percent fewer carjackings and 36 percent fewer robberies. The analysis also found that last year will likely register as the lowest national homicide rate since 1900.
No one knows for sure why the rate of violence is down, though some criminologists pointed to efforts over the past few years, including hot-spot policing, summer jobs for youth and cognitive behavioral therapy. Polls suggest that even the public has started to believe that there has been improvement, which is unusual in any era.
Fewer homicides, more guns seized as Des Moines reviews early 2025 …
Jan 3, 2026 Preliminary 2025 data show fewer homicides and assaults in Des Moines, with police also seizing more guns as leaders look ahead to a full annual report.
The Global Statistics
https://www.theglobalstatistics.com › violent-crime-rate-in-us
Violent Crime Rate in US 2025 | Statistics & Facts
Violent Crime Rate in America 2025: The landscape of public safety in America has witnessed remarkable transformation throughout 2025, with violent crime rates reaching historic lows not seen in over two decades. According to the latest data from the Federal Bureau of Investigation.
From 2024 to 2025, homicide rates fell in 31 of the 35 major cities included in the study, for an average decline of 21 percent.
The largest drop in homicide rates came from Denver, Washington, D.C., and Omaha, Neb. — which reported declines of 41 percent, 40 percent and 40 percent, respectively. Another seven cities saw drops of more than 30 percent: Los Angeles, Buffalo, N.Y., Albuquerque, N.M., Long Beach, Calif., Atlanta, Baltimore and Chicago, according to the study.